Introduction to Wind Resource Risk
A 1-day introduction to the economics, practical challenges and technological solutions to quantifying and mitigating wind resource risk
25 June 2012, London, United Kingdom
Note: The course can be attended as a stand-alone session but also provides an excellent way to introduce yourself to or refresh your knowledge of Wind Power before attending the "Global Wind Power Finance & Investment" Congress on the following days.
- Defining and measuring “wind resource” (and why it is much more than average speed)
- The economics of wind projects and the levelised cost of wind energy; and their sensitivity to wind resource characteristics
- Does “better wind” balance extra costs and risks? (e.g. offshore)
- Technological solutions in wind measurement and forecasting
This unique, 1-day course, aimed specifically at business and commercially-focused people, will provide attendees with a stimulating introduction to the economic impacts of wind resources and the investment risks they present.
We explain the factors which most influence wind resource risk, and introduce the ways that wind resource is quantified. As well as presenting the qualitative economic issues, we also introduce the commonly used metrics such “levelized cost of electricity” (LCOE), cash flows, risk profiles (P50, P90 etc.), costs and investment returns and investigate the sensitivity of these business metrics to variations in wind input values.
The course is accessible to business people from various job functions and company types, including:
- Business & Strategy Development, Financial & Investment Planning, Policymaking, Project Planning & Management, Senior Corporate Management, Sales & Marketing
- Project Developers, Utilities and Power Generating Companies, Governments, Banks and other Investors, Grid Operators, Technology Supplies and Equipment Vendors
All Green Power Academy courses run in an informal and extremely interactive manner, encouraging discussion and questions, to ensure that participants get the most value from the day.
Level & Style
We assume no prior financial expertise for this course, which seeks to provide clarity to what can be a complex and interconnected series of economic influences.
The course runs in a friendly, informal manner, encouraging discussions and questions to ensure that participants get the most out of their time. In order to better understand and illustrate the various topics, some simple calculations and other explanatory exercises may be incorporated.
(include lunch plus morning and afternoon refreshment breaks):
09:00 - 17:00
About your trainer
Dr John Massey is Green Power Academy's founder, Training Director, in-house renewables expert and lead trainer.
Combining a strong academic science background with over fifteen years commercial experience of industry research, analysis and training across a variety of “new technology “ industries (including conventional and renewable energy, telecoms and IT), Dr Massey is expert in demystifying the terminology and workings of new technologies, and presenting their commercial and business context.
He delivers training globally, to senior executives from a range of organisations from project development to finance and has also developed educational material for both live and distance learning courses.
He holds a 1st Class Honours degree in Natural Sciences from the University of Cambridge, a PhD in Earth Sciences and a Diploma in Economics, Innovation and Sustainability.
“Very solid introduction from a very knowledgeable instructor”
“Rich in discussion”
“Good balance between theoretical and interactive”
What are “Wind Power Resources”?
- Introducing the key measures and concepts in measuring energy and power: which matter the most from a commercial perspective?
- “Average” wind speed measurements and what these mean in practice
- How wind energy varies with speed, height and other factors
- Wind speed distributions and their importance
- Wind power maps and world resources
- Comparing and contrasting onshore and offshore wind resources
- The potential of wind to contribute to large-scale energy use; and the constraints on getting there
Wind Project Development
- Techniques and technologies for gathering wind data, including emerging methods
- Measurements, estimates and uncertainties in wind measurement
- Wind turbine power curves and coefficients: how matching wind resource with turbine choice impacts energy output
- The impact of wind risk on project economics and returns
- Siting and farm layout issues, including key restrictions, limitations and wake effects
Wind Economics & Resource Risk
- Analysing cash flow models for wind power projects:
- Available data on costs, availability, capacity factor, policy incentives and other key inputs
- Levelised cost of energy and market competitiveness
- Other key outputs: IRR, NPV, Return on Equity etc.
- Sensitivity analysis: how much difference does resource error make?
- External impacts of wind resource risk:
- Variability and grid integration, including the need for storage
- Balancing costs